Dubois vs Joyce free heavyweight boxing tips, odds and betting prediction
Daniel Dubois (left) and Joe Joyce (right) go head to head on Saturday night
Joe Joyce has boxed 11 contests and ended 10 of them early.
Daniel Dubois has been in 15 bouts and finished 14 of them without the need of judges – every single one before the sixth round.
So an early finish to Saturday night's huge heavyweight showdown in the Church House, Westminster looks a certainty.
But how early?
Odds of 19/20 for less than six rounds to be completed with thepools.com looks solid.
It may even be quicker.
Dubois' last three contests have ended in the second, second and first rounds – three of Joyce's last five have ended before the bell for the end of the third round – less than three total rounds completed is 3/1 .
Joyce by stoppage 11/2
Dubois rounds 7-9 17/4
The two Joyce contests which went beyond the third round were against top quality performers in Bryant Jennings, a unanimous 12-round decision, and Bermane Stiverne – a TKO in the sixth after Stiverne had been dropped in the third.
The quality of those opponents doesn't seem to have cut any ice with the bookies.
The younger Dubois (23) is heavily odds on, 1/4 to win with thepools.com and 1/2 to win by stoppage – while Joyce (35) is 3/1 to have his arm raised and 11/2 to do so after a stoppage .
There is no doubt that Dubois is the cuter, more technically accomplished fighter. Despite his Olympic silver medal credentials Joyce is often happy to take a punch to land one, a high risk strategy against a puncher like Dubois.
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But 3/1 is a big, big price in a contest where one blow could decide the outcome.
Industry experts are calling this a 50-50 fight. Nathan Gorman, stopped by Dubois last summer, said: "I think Dubois-Joyce is a real 50-50 fight, I favour Daniel under six ( rounds 1-3 is 7/2 and 3-6 14/5 ), over six I think Joyce with the experience, his Olympic pedigree etc. and the people he’s boxed ( Joyce rounds 7-9 is 16/1 and 10-12 is 25/1 ).
Solomon Dacres, who has sparred both, said: "Joyce has got that engine and if he doesn’t take too many shots early he could start to overwhelm Daniel as the rounds go on. Daniel’s got that one punch power that’s on a different level and he’s very well balanced as well. It can go either way. I’m edging towards Joyce down the stretch."
While Simen Nysaeter, beaten by Dubois as an amateur, added: "Dubois vs Joyce fight is really a 50-50 fight. Hard to predict the outcome, but I think Dubois will get the stoppage early or Joyce will get it late."
So it really is a 50-50 contest – and 11/2 for a Joyce stoppage is just too generous to ignore, even if we think Dubois 'could' force a stoppage of his own between rounds 7-9 ( 17/4 ).