New map shows places predicted to be coronavirus ‘hotspots’ when lockdown ends

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Most local authorities in the UK are projected to be coronavirus hotspots in a fortnight when England is due to lift its national lockdown.

In England, Hull, Swale, Hartlepool, East Lindsey, Dudley and Stoke-on-Trent are predicted to have some of the highest infection rates.

They could be plunged into the highest local lockdown tier if the national shutdown ends as planned on December 2.

This map, created by Covid-19 researchers, projects red zones across almost all of England and swathes of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on that date.

Imperial College London's research and interactive map suggest infection rates will remain alarmingly high in parts of all four nations.

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The places in red are projected to be coronavirus hotspots on December 2

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View the full interactive map here.

Just under 300 local authorities have an 80 per cent or greater chance of being a hotspot on December 2, according to the study.

Hull, Swale, Hartlepool, East Lindsey, Dudley and Stoke are at the top of the table, based on their current Covid-19 infection rates, which are the highest in England.

They are followed by Kirklees, Oadby and Wigston, Bradford, Rochdale, Leicester and Thanet.

If England's lockdown ends on December 2 and the country shifts back to a tiered system, those local authorities will be at risk of being placed in the category with the toughest restrictions.

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Others at risk of being placed in Tier 3, or a new equivalent, include Greater Manchester, the North East, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Scarborough, Bristol and Lincolnshire.

Researchers from Imperial College London define a hotspot as a local authority where there are more than 50 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 of the population per week.

Areas with the lowest probability of becoming a hotspot in a fortnight include West Suffolk, Lancaster, Tendring and Colchester in England; Cardiff, Gwynedd and Conwy in Wales; Highland, Dumfries and Galloway, and Aryll and Bute in Scotland; and Lisburn and Castlereagh, and Newry, Mourne and Down inNorthern Ireland.

About 60 local authorities have weekly infection rates higher than 400 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to November 13, according to a study by the PA news agency.

Shoppers in Liverpool city centre before the national lockdown began
(Image: Julian Hamilton/Daily Mirror)

About 35 more are have rates between 300 and 400.

Hull has the highest infection rate in England – 760.6 in the week up to November 13, up from 731.8 in the previous seven days).

It is followed by Hartlepool (596.8), Swale (589.7), Blackburn with Darwen (575.2), Oldham (568.5),.

Dudley (565.9), Stoke-on-Trent (557.8), East Lindsey (554.6), Kirklees (553.4) and North East Lincolnshire (537.7) round out the top ten.

Areas recording the biggest week-on-week jumps include Boston (up from 233.7 to 470.3, with 330 new cases); Thanet (up from 290.3 to 520.0, with 738 new cases); and East Lindsey (up from 347.9 to 554.6, with 786 new cases).

Imperial College London created its map, which is updated daily, before the second wave began.

The purpose was to reveal areas of concern and encourage local authorities to act before it was too late.

The map uses figures on daily and weekly reported deaths and mathematical modelling to calculate the probability that a local authority will become a hotspot.

It also gives estimates on whether cases are likely to increase or decrease, and the probability of the R number being greater than one.

Deaths have been rising during the second wave of the virus
(Image: COBR)

If R is higher than one it indicates an outbreak is out of control and cases will continue to increase.

The predictions assume no change in current interventions, such as lockdowns or school closures, beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

An increase in cases in a local authority can be due to a rise in testing, which the model does not account for, the researchers said.

It also does not take demographic factors into consideration.

What is the Covid-19 infection rate in my local area?

Here is the rolling seven-day rate of new cases of Covid-19 for every local authority area in England.

The figures, for the seven days to November 13, are based on tests carried out in laboratories (pillar one of the Government's testing programme) and in the wider community (pillar two).

The rate is expressed as the number of new cases per 100,000 people.

Data for the most recent four days (November 14-17) has been excluded as it is incomplete and does not reflect the true number of cases.

A majority of areas in England (232 out of 315) have seen a rise in case rates.

Hull continues to have the highest rate in England, with 1,976 new cases recorded in the seven days to November 13 – the equivalent of 760.6 cases per 100,000 people.

This is up slightly on 731.8 cases per 100,000 in the seven days to November 6.

Hartlepool has the second highest rate, up sharply from 407.8 to 596.8, with 559 new cases.

Swale is in third place, where the rate has risen from 284.5 to 589.7, with 885 new cases.

Areas recording the biggest week-on-week jumps include Boston (up from 233.7 to 470.3, with 330 new cases); Thanet (up from 290.3 to 520.0, with 738 new cases); and East Lindsey (up from 347.9 to 554.6, with 786 new cases).

The list has been calculated by the PA news agency and is based on Public Health England data published on November 17 on the Government's coronavirus dashboard.

Here is the list in full.

From left to right, it reads: name of local authority; rate of new cases in the seven days to November 13; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to November 13; rate of new cases in the seven days to November 6; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to November 6.

Hull 760.6 (1976), 731.8 (1901)

Hartlepool 596.8 (559), 407.8 (382)

Swale 589.7 (885), 284.5 (427)

Blackburn with Darwen 575.2 (861), 705.4 (1056)

Oldham 568.5 (1348), 764.2 (1812)

Dudley 565.9 (1820), 452.1 (1454)

Stoke-on-Trent 557.8 (1430), 436.1 (1118)

East Lindsey 554.6 (786), 347.9 (493)

Kirklees 553.4 (2434), 571.9 (2515)

North East Lincolnshire 537.7 (858), 638.6 (1019)

Scarborough 533.3 (580), 428.5 (466)

Bradford 532.3 (2873), 587.1 (3169)

Oadby and Wigston 527.9 (301), 391.1 (223)

Leicester 526.2 (1864), 418.7 (1483)

Rochdale 524.3 (1166), 618.2 (1375)

Thanet 520.0 (738), 290.3 (412)

Sandwell 507.5 (1667), 428.4 (1407)

Middlesbrough 499.4 (704), 395.1 (557)

The estimated R rate in the UK is still above 1
(Image: COBR)

Redcar and Cleveland 498.0 (683), 392.3 (538)

Bristol 486.4 (2254), 461.6 (2139)

Calderdale 483.8 (1023), 440.8 (932)

East Riding of Yorkshire 482.2 (1645), 415.0 (1416)

Wakefield 480.3 (1673), 501.3 (1746)

Bury 473.8 (905), 586.9 (1121)

Boston 470.3 (330), 233.7 (164)

Blaby 455.1 (462), 332.9 (338)

Newcastle-under-Lyme 454.3 (588), 422.6 (547)

Amber Valley 454.2 (582), 424.5 (544)

South Staffordshire 453.6 (510), 486.5 (547)

Salford 453.2 (1173), 573.0 (1483)

Stockton-on-Tees 453.0 (894), 396.8 (783)

Newcastle upon Tyne 451.4 (1367), 370.8 (1123)

Lincoln 451.2 (448), 325.3 (323)

North Lincolnshire 445.8 (768), 337.2 (581)

Bolton 444.1 (1277), 543.9 (1564)

Preston 443.6 (635), 449.9 (644)

Leeds 442.2 (3507), 437.9 (3473)

East Staffordshire 441.7 (529), 385.8 (462)

Wigan 441.5 (1451), 604.6 (1987)

Pendle 434.3 (400), 504.8 (465)

Tamworth 434.2 (333), 393.8 (302)

North Tyneside 431.9 (898), 330.4 (687)

Gateshead 429.6 (868), 440.0 (889)

South Tyneside 425.9 (643), 329.9 (498)

Sunderland 423.5 (1176), 365.1 (1014)

Bolsover 423.3 (341), 472.9 (381)

Melton 421.8 (216), 312.4 (160)

Staffordshire Moorlands 419.6 (413), 386.0 (380)

Lichfield 419.1 (439), 358.0 (375)

Burnley 418.4 (372), 399.2 (355)

Derby 415.9 (1070), 453.9 (1168)

Walsall 415.1 (1185), 356.2 (1017)

County Durham 412.2 (2185), 350.7 (1859)

Bassetlaw 412.1 (484), 463.1 (544)

Stafford 408.7 (561), 394.1 (541)

North West Leicestershire 407.3 (422), 313.7 (325)

Tameside 405.8 (919), 476.8 (1080)

Barnsley 405.5 (1001), 484.1 (1195)

North Warwickshire 401.4 (262), 311.0 (203)

Hyndburn 399.8 (324), 428.2 (347)

Birmingham 386.3 (4411), 331.1 (3781)

South Derbyshire 385.0 (413), 431.7 (463)

Rossendale 384.7 (275), 461.7 (330)

Manchester 378.2 (2091), 443.0 (2449)

Charnwood 375.6 (698), 390.6 (726)

Nuneaton and Bedworth 372.6 (484), 233.3 (303)

Rotherham 367.4 (975), 438.9 (1165)

Cannock Chase 365.2 (368), 337.4 (340)

Hospital admissions have increased in recent weeks
(Image: COBR)

Doncaster 364.2 (1136), 478.1 (1491)

Wolverhampton 363.0 (956), 328.8 (866)

Slough 360.4 (539), 240.7 (360)

Telford and Wrekin 355.8 (640), 324.2 (583)

Redditch 350.7 (299), 326.1 (278)

Havering 347.5 (902), 273.9 (711)

South Gloucestershire 344.4 (982), 316.7 (903)

Trafford 343.4 (815), 394.3 (936)

Darlington 342.7 (366), 327.7 (350)

Harborough 336.9 (316), 190.8 (179)

Stockport 334.3 (981), 374.9 (1100)

Erewash 332.8 (384), 258.3 (298)

Mansfield 331.2 (362), 380.6 (416)

Hinckley and Bosworth 330.6 (374), 266.1 (301)

Dartford 317.9 (358), 220.2 (248)

Chesterfield 315.5 (331), 332.7 (349)

Solihull 314.3 (680), 275.9 (597)

Portsmouth 313.2 (673), 217.3 (467)

North Kesteven 308.8 (361), 273.7 (320)

Blackpool 308.4 (430), 337.0 (470)

Gravesham 307.7 (329), 179.5 (192)

Cheshire West and Chester 305.8 (1049), 267.6 (918)

Medway 305.1 (850), 181.3 (505)

North Somerset 305.0 (656), 239.9 (516)

Ashfield 301.0 (385), 307.2 (393)

Knowsley 300.3 (453), 332.1 (501)

Northumberland 299.6 (966), 231.7 (747)

Fylde 298.3 (241), 273.6 (221)

Ribble Valley 297.3 (181), 376.1 (229)

Sheffield 296.8 (1736), 362.1 (2118)

High Peak 292.4 (271), 304.3 (282)

Richmondshire 292.2 (157), 156.3 (84)

Warrington 291.9 (613), 394.3 (828)

Bromsgrove 288.3 (288), 209.2 (209)

Sefton 286.2 (791), 268.4 (742)

West Lancashire 286.1 (327), 300.9 (344)

Cambridge 286.1 (357), 123.4 (154)

Luton 285.8 (609), 255.3 (544)

Liverpool 281.3 (1401), 268.7 (1338)

Northampton 280.9 (631), 246.6 (554)

Coventry 279.4 (1038), 224.5 (834)

St. Helens 279.1 (504), 342.2 (618)

Selby 278.1 (252), 250.5 (227)

West Lindsey 276.0 (264), 217.4 (208)

Redbridge 273.6 (835), 228.0 (696)

Craven 269.5 (154), 206.5 (118)

Bexley 269.4 (669), 211.9 (526)

Chorley 268.2 (317), 285.1 (337)

Rugby 268.0 (292), 156.1 (170)

Harrogate 266.7 (429), 282.3 (454)

Wyre Forest 266.6 (270), 272.5 (276)

Tower Hamlets 266.4 (865), 217.4 (706)

Gedling 266.3 (314), 335.9 (396)

Oxford 266.3 (406), 165.3 (252)

Nottingham 264.6 (881), 342.7 (1141)

Ealing 258.3 (883), 218.5 (747)

South Ribble 258.2 (286), 266.3 (295)

Spelthorne 257.4 (257), 210.3 (210)

Newark and Sherwood 256.5 (314), 267.1 (327)

The number of people testing positive for coronavirus in England
(Image: COBR)

North East Derbyshire 255.3 (259), 300.6 (305)

Warwick 253.2 (364), 272.7 (392)

Wyre 252.5 (283), 307.8 (345)

Brentwood 250.6 (193), 176.6 (136)

Canterbury 249.7 (413), 103.4 (171)

Bath and North East Somerset 248.3 (480), 226.1 (437)

Worcester 248.0 (251), 249.9 (253)

Shropshire 247.6 (800), 209.2 (676)

Daventry 246.7 (212), 187.3 (161)

Epsom and Ewell 244.3 (197), 125.3 (101)

Barking and Dagenham 244.2 (520), 218.9 (466)

Hillingdon 242.4 (744), 190.0 (583)

Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole 241.3 (954), 228.4 (903)

Runnymede 240.4 (215), 168.9 (151)

Broxtowe 239.4 (273), 284.1 (324)

Cheshire East 239.0 (918), 219.7 (844)

Halton 233.4 (302), 251.9 (326)

Broxbourne 232.3 (226), 191.2 (186)

Waltham Forest 232.1 (643), 157.4 (436)

Plymouth 231.2 (606), 180.5 (473)

South Kesteven 231.0 (329), 176.9 (252)

South Northamptonshire 230.7 (218), 200.0 (189)

Derbyshire Dales 229.5 (166), 200.5 (145)

Gosport 228.7 (194), 126.1 (107)

South Bucks 227.0 (159), 121.4 (85)

South Holland 226.3 (215), 172.6 (164)

Epping Forest 224.8 (296), 170.1 (224)

Carlisle 224.5 (244), 272.4 (296)

Kettering 224.0 (228), 138.5 (141)

Eden 223.5 (119), 202.8 (108)

South Norfolk 222.2 (313), 80.9 (114)

Southampton 222.2 (561), 181.0 (457)

Ryedale 222.1 (123), 133.6 (74)

South Lakeland 221.7 (233), 156.1 (164)

Peterborough 218.5 (442), 163.2 (330)

Maidstone 217.7 (374), 150.2 (258)

Basildon 216.9 (406), 120.7 (226)

Great Yarmouth 215.4 (214), 161.1 (160)

Hammersmith and Fulham 215.0 (398), 158.8 (294)

East Northamptonshire 214.8 (203), 238.0 (225)

Havant 214.7 (271), 182.2 (230)

Brent 213.2 (703), 174.4 (575)

Thurrock 212.8 (371), 154.3 (269)

Copeland 212.7 (145), 230.3 (157)

Rushcliffe 211.4 (252), 244.2 (291)

Swindon 209.3 (465), 191.3 (425)

Tonbridge and Malling 205.8 (272), 133.9 (177)

Enfield 205.5 (686), 153.4 (512)

Torbay 205.5 (280), 253.2 (345)

Wycombe 202.7 (354), 171.2 (299)

Barrow-in-Furness 201.3 (135), 152.1 (102)

Corby 200.8 (145), 116.3 (84)

Dover 200.6 (237), 148.1 (175)

Hambleton 199.8 (183), 257.7 (236)

Hounslow 199.6 (542), 162.8 (442)

Winchester 199.4 (249), 147.4 (184)

Newham 197.9 (699), 186.9 (660)

Three Rivers 196.1 (183), 122.2 (114)

Windsor and Maidenhead 194.2 (294), 163.1 (247)

The number of Covid-19 hospital inpatients in England has increased since August
(Image: COBR)

Kingston upon Thames 192.7 (342), 134.1 (238)

Harrow 191.9 (482), 153.7 (386)

Barnet 190.5 (754), 135.4 (536)

Wandsworth 188.7 (622), 132.6 (437)

East Hertfordshire 186.3 (279), 126.2 (189)

Allerdale 185.1 (181), 178.0 (174)

Sevenoaks 184.7 (223), 111.8 (135)

Stevenage 182.1 (160), 130.9 (115)

Castle Point 181.5 (164), 125.0 (113)

Watford 181.2 (175), 177.1 (171)

Brighton and Hove 180.8 (526), 128.9 (375)

Wirral 180.2 (584), 212.3 (688)

Herefordshire 180.0 (347), 99.1 (191)

Gloucester 179.7 (232), 147.9 (191)

Southend-on-Sea 179.7 (329), 120.7 (221)

Islington 176.1 (427), 130.7 (317)

York 175.2 (369), 189.4 (399)

Babergh 173.8 (160), 93.4 (86)

Surrey Heath 173.6 (155), 106.4 (95)

Hackney and City of London 172.9 (503), 130.7 (380)

Milton Keynes 172.9 (466), 127.3 (343)

Fareham 172.9 (201), 144.5 (168)

Cheltenham 172.8 (201), 125.5 (146)

Sutton 172.5 (356), 141.5 (292)

Exeter 168.9 (222), 130.9 (172)

Cotswold 168.0 (151), 134.7 (121)

Greenwich 167.4 (482), 116.7 (336)

Bedford 165.0 (286), 125.2 (217)

Sedgemoor 164.8 (203), 142.1 (175)

Stratford-on-Avon 164.5 (214), 174.5 (227)

Merton 162.7 (336), 126.4 (261)

Crawley 161.9 (182), 133.4 (150)

Westminster 161.9 (423), 152.7 (399)

Woking 161.7 (163), 146.8 (148)

St Albans 161.0 (239), 107.8 (160)

Lambeth 160.7 (524), 135.9 (443)

North Devon 160.6 (156), 101.9 (99)

Welwyn Hatfield 160.1 (197), 164.2 (202)

Tandridge 160.0 (141), 116.9 (103)

Wychavon 159.9 (207), 173.8 (225)

Cherwell 159.5 (240), 150.8 (227)

East Hampshire 158.6 (194), 134.1 (164)

East Devon 158.6 (232), 131.3 (192)

Stroud 155.9 (187), 175.1 (210)

Mole Valley 154.7 (135), 178.8 (156)

Croydon 154.4 (597), 115.6 (447)

Reading 153.3 (248), 144.6 (234)

Elmbridge 152.8 (209), 89.9 (123)

New Forest 152.7 (275), 99.4 (179)

The number of weekly deaths in England and Wales is above the five-year average
(Image: COBR)

Reigate and Banstead 152.6 (227), 115.6 (172)

Wokingham 151.4 (259), 111.6 (191)

Bromley 149.8 (498), 107.7 (358)

Mid Sussex 149.6 (226), 108.6 (164)

Broadland 149.1 (195), 117.8 (154)

North Hertfordshire 148.2 (198), 107.8 (144)

Wellingborough 148.0 (118), 159.3 (127)

Uttlesford 147.9 (135), 119.4 (109)

Haringey 147.4 (396), 135.1 (363)

Kensington and Chelsea 147.3 (230), 105.7 (165)

Rochford 146.5 (128), 91.6 (80)

Guildford 146.3 (218), 165.8 (247)

South Somerset 146.1 (246), 98.0 (165)

Hertsmere 145.8 (153), 117.2 (123)

Folkestone and Hythe 145.1 (164), 96.5 (109)

Chichester 144.5 (175), 129.6 (157)

Chelmsford 142.9 (255), 100.3 (179)

Harlow 142.4 (124), 95.3 (83)

Norwich 141.6 (199), 85.4 (120)

Lancaster 141.1 (206), 187.6 (274)

Vale of White Horse 139.7 (190), 108.1 (147)

Richmond upon Thames 139.4 (276), 114.6 (227)

Aylesbury Vale 138.9 (277), 147.4 (294)

Basingstoke and Deane 138.2 (244), 128.6 (227)

Breckland 136.5 (191), 75.0 (105)

Tewkesbury 135.8 (129), 85.2 (81)

Rushmoor 135.3 (128), 132.1 (125)

Camden 134.4 (363), 103.7 (280)

Central Bedfordshire 134.4 (388), 106.0 (306)

Rutland 132.7 (53), 135.2 (54)

Fenland 132.5 (135), 75.6 (77)

Ashford 132.3 (172), 93.1 (121)

Rother 130.1 (125), 59.3 (57)

South Oxfordshire 129.5 (184), 122.5 (174)

Lewisham 128.2 (392), 96.8 (296)

West Berkshire 127.5 (202), 105.4 (167)

Bracknell Forest 125.7 (154), 118.3 (145)

West Oxfordshire 125.6 (139), 139.2 (154)

Chiltern 125.1 (120), 86.5 (83)

Dacorum 124.7 (193), 113.1 (175)

Eastleigh 123.5 (165), 147.5 (197)

Horsham 123.1 (177), 88.3 (127)

Tunbridge Wells 123.0 (146), 75.0 (89)

Waverley 122.7 (155), 102.9 (130)

Southwark 122.3 (390), 100.7 (321)

Huntingdonshire 121.9 (217), 91.0 (162)

Wealden 121.4 (196), 60.1 (97)

South Cambridgeshire 119.4 (190), 96.8 (154)

Malvern Hills 118.2 (93), 128.3 (101)

King's Lynn and West Norfolk 117.6 (178), 133.4 (202)

Wiltshire 114.8 (574), 93.2 (466)

Test Valley 111.0 (140), 88.0 (111)

Eastbourne 110.8 (115), 65.5 (68)

Dorset 108.6 (411), 92.5 (350)

Forest of Dean 108.3 (94), 94.5 (82)

Mendip 108.1 (125), 77.0 (89)

South Hams 108.0 (94), 83.9 (73)

Somerset West and Taunton 103.8 (161), 93.5 (145)

Arun 103.3 (166), 76.5 (123)

Hart 101.0 (98), 112.3 (109)

Braintree 99.6 (152), 84.5 (129)

Torridge 98.1 (67), 63.0 (43)

West Devon 95.0 (53), 98.6 (55)

Maldon 92.4 (60), 58.5 (38)

Lewes 92.0 (95), 63.9 (66)

Colchester 91.9 (179), 99.1 (193)

Adur 90.2 (58), 68.4 (44)

East Suffolk 87.4 (218), 68.5 (171)

Hastings 86.3 (80), 37.8 (35)

Ipswich 84.7 (116), 95.0 (130)

Cornwall and Isles of Scilly 84.6 (484), 61.9 (354)

Teignbridge 78.3 (105), 73.0 (98)

Mid Devon 76.5 (63), 81.4 (67)

Isle of Wight 75.5 (107), 72.7 (103)

East Cambridgeshire 71.2 (64), 71.2 (64)

Worthing 70.5 (78), 80.5 (89)

Mid Suffolk 65.5 (68), 64.5 (67)

West Suffolk 64.2 (115), 57.0 (102)

North Norfolk 56.3 (59), 42.9 (45)

Tendring 55.3 (81), 62.8 (92)

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